Deleted User
05-31-1999, 03:31 AM
Monday May 31, 2:16 am Eastern Time
<p>
<b><font size="5">ANALYSIS-N.Korea at crossroads after Perry's visit</b></font>
<p>
By Bill Tarrant
<p>
SEOUL, May 31 (Reuters) - U.S. presidential envoy William Perry's landmark visit to
North Korea has put Pyongyang squarely on the horns of a dilemma as it ponders an offer of
major economic and diplomatic benefits in exchange for abandoning its militaristic ambitions.
<p>
On the one hand, Perry apparently offered something North Korea has long hungered for:
diplomatic ties and economic aid from the United States, with whom it remains technically at
war.
<p>
But Perry's offer during talks last week also implied a greater opening to the world by one of the world's most isolated
countries -- something the Stalinist regime could perceive as threatening to its long-term survivability, analysts said.
<p>
``North Korea's at a crossroads,'' said Park Yong-ho at the Institute of National Unification. ``Their first priority is to maintain
(North Korean leader) Kim Jong-il's system. They need economic benefits from the U.S., South Korea and the West, but only
if doesn't endanger their system.''
<p>
Perry did not spell out details of what was on offer.
<p>
He told a news conference on Saturday he had ``explored the possibility of a major expansion in our relations and cooperation,
as part of a process in which the U.S. and allied concerns about missile and nuclear programmes are addressed.''
<p>
South Korean President Kim Dae-jung told Reuters earlier this month that North Korea would be offered security guarantees,
a gradual end to a nearly 50-year U.S. trade embargo, development aid and normalisation of ties with the United States and
Japan.
<p>
The United States, Japan and South Korea -- which are taking a coordinated, ``comprehensive approach'' to North Korea --
have demanded that Pyongyang stop developing and exporting missiles and abandon, once and for all, any nuclear ambitions it
might have.
<p>
Park at the unification institute said North Korea would probably counter with a piecemeal approach of negotiating incremental
changes.
<p>
Yu Suk-rul at the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security in Seoul agreed. "I think they've already decided they
cannot accept the comprehensive approach.
<p>
``The status quo is much better, even though it has fewer economic benefits,'' Yu said. ``Once they open up society, it poses a
serious challenge from inside to Kim Jong-il's system.''
<p>
Perry did not meet North Korea's reclusive Kim Jong-il.
<p>
On Friday, shortly after Perry departed, North Korean media said Kim went to the front line of the militarised frontier to
inspect ``enemy positions,'' as if to underline the state of war that has existed on the Korean peninsula the past half-century.
<p>
North Korea's media went back on the offensive after toning down the rhetoric during the Perry visit.
<p>
The official communist party daily Rodong Shimun denounced ``the U.S. imperialists'' in a Sunday editorial for planning
``pre-emptive strikes'' against North Korea.
<p>
``The U.S. Imperialists have already worked out a timetable for a nuclear war against the DPRK (North Korea)...and are
waiting for a chance to train the fuse of a war,'' it said.
<p>
NATO strikes against Yugoslavia are ``a test war, a preliminary war to verify the effectiveness and feasibility'' of the plan.
<p>
The two Koreas remain technically at war because the 1950-53 Korean conflict ended in an armed truce instead of a peace
pact.
<p>
The war pitted U.S.-led United Nations forces against China-backed North Korea. Today, more than two million troops and
thousands of artillery tubes are deployed on either side of the world's most militarised frontier.
<p>
China remains North Korea's chief ally and one of the few friends it has in the world today. Beijing will likely play a key role in
North Korea's response to Perry's overture.
<p>
North Korea's second-ranking leader, Kim Yong-nam, will visit China on Thursday, the highest-level visit in eight years.
<p>
The warmer ties between two of the world's last socialist countries comes at a time of heightened tensions in their relations with
the United States.
<p>
Beijing has reacted angrily to deepening military ties between the United States and Japan, and to their plans for a regional
Theatre Missile Defence umbrella. Washington argues it is needed to protect against a North Korean missile menace.
<p>
North Korea stunned the world by firing a rocket over Japan last August. The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency said
Pyongyang is now the world's leading exporter of ballistic missiles.
<p>
China, too, has been alarmed about the NATO strikes. Its own fears of ``containment'' have been heightened by NATO's
bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade this month, seen in Beijing as a deliberate act of aggression.
<p>
But in a sign that tensions could ease, a team of U.S. experts found no reason to believe at this stage that an underground
building site in North Korea violated a 1994 nuclear agreement between Washington and Pyongyang, the U.S. State
Department said.
<p>
The team returned last week from a visit to the suspected site at Kumchang-ri to make sure it did not break the 1994
agreement, in which North Korea froze its nuclear programmes in return for a promise of nuclear power plants and fuel oil.
<p>
<b><font size="5">ANALYSIS-N.Korea at crossroads after Perry's visit</b></font>
<p>
By Bill Tarrant
<p>
SEOUL, May 31 (Reuters) - U.S. presidential envoy William Perry's landmark visit to
North Korea has put Pyongyang squarely on the horns of a dilemma as it ponders an offer of
major economic and diplomatic benefits in exchange for abandoning its militaristic ambitions.
<p>
On the one hand, Perry apparently offered something North Korea has long hungered for:
diplomatic ties and economic aid from the United States, with whom it remains technically at
war.
<p>
But Perry's offer during talks last week also implied a greater opening to the world by one of the world's most isolated
countries -- something the Stalinist regime could perceive as threatening to its long-term survivability, analysts said.
<p>
``North Korea's at a crossroads,'' said Park Yong-ho at the Institute of National Unification. ``Their first priority is to maintain
(North Korean leader) Kim Jong-il's system. They need economic benefits from the U.S., South Korea and the West, but only
if doesn't endanger their system.''
<p>
Perry did not spell out details of what was on offer.
<p>
He told a news conference on Saturday he had ``explored the possibility of a major expansion in our relations and cooperation,
as part of a process in which the U.S. and allied concerns about missile and nuclear programmes are addressed.''
<p>
South Korean President Kim Dae-jung told Reuters earlier this month that North Korea would be offered security guarantees,
a gradual end to a nearly 50-year U.S. trade embargo, development aid and normalisation of ties with the United States and
Japan.
<p>
The United States, Japan and South Korea -- which are taking a coordinated, ``comprehensive approach'' to North Korea --
have demanded that Pyongyang stop developing and exporting missiles and abandon, once and for all, any nuclear ambitions it
might have.
<p>
Park at the unification institute said North Korea would probably counter with a piecemeal approach of negotiating incremental
changes.
<p>
Yu Suk-rul at the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security in Seoul agreed. "I think they've already decided they
cannot accept the comprehensive approach.
<p>
``The status quo is much better, even though it has fewer economic benefits,'' Yu said. ``Once they open up society, it poses a
serious challenge from inside to Kim Jong-il's system.''
<p>
Perry did not meet North Korea's reclusive Kim Jong-il.
<p>
On Friday, shortly after Perry departed, North Korean media said Kim went to the front line of the militarised frontier to
inspect ``enemy positions,'' as if to underline the state of war that has existed on the Korean peninsula the past half-century.
<p>
North Korea's media went back on the offensive after toning down the rhetoric during the Perry visit.
<p>
The official communist party daily Rodong Shimun denounced ``the U.S. imperialists'' in a Sunday editorial for planning
``pre-emptive strikes'' against North Korea.
<p>
``The U.S. Imperialists have already worked out a timetable for a nuclear war against the DPRK (North Korea)...and are
waiting for a chance to train the fuse of a war,'' it said.
<p>
NATO strikes against Yugoslavia are ``a test war, a preliminary war to verify the effectiveness and feasibility'' of the plan.
<p>
The two Koreas remain technically at war because the 1950-53 Korean conflict ended in an armed truce instead of a peace
pact.
<p>
The war pitted U.S.-led United Nations forces against China-backed North Korea. Today, more than two million troops and
thousands of artillery tubes are deployed on either side of the world's most militarised frontier.
<p>
China remains North Korea's chief ally and one of the few friends it has in the world today. Beijing will likely play a key role in
North Korea's response to Perry's overture.
<p>
North Korea's second-ranking leader, Kim Yong-nam, will visit China on Thursday, the highest-level visit in eight years.
<p>
The warmer ties between two of the world's last socialist countries comes at a time of heightened tensions in their relations with
the United States.
<p>
Beijing has reacted angrily to deepening military ties between the United States and Japan, and to their plans for a regional
Theatre Missile Defence umbrella. Washington argues it is needed to protect against a North Korean missile menace.
<p>
North Korea stunned the world by firing a rocket over Japan last August. The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency said
Pyongyang is now the world's leading exporter of ballistic missiles.
<p>
China, too, has been alarmed about the NATO strikes. Its own fears of ``containment'' have been heightened by NATO's
bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade this month, seen in Beijing as a deliberate act of aggression.
<p>
But in a sign that tensions could ease, a team of U.S. experts found no reason to believe at this stage that an underground
building site in North Korea violated a 1994 nuclear agreement between Washington and Pyongyang, the U.S. State
Department said.
<p>
The team returned last week from a visit to the suspected site at Kumchang-ri to make sure it did not break the 1994
agreement, in which North Korea froze its nuclear programmes in return for a promise of nuclear power plants and fuel oil.